By Vic Odarve
A glimpse on world history showed
that countries which started a huge, bloody conflict and blown out into
catastrophic proportions have a common denominator; authoritarian rule,
expansionist policy, and bullying small and powerless neighbors. Authoritarian
rule is akin to martial law whose leaders often perceive as rulers with
unlimited powers; few elite people make decisions and control the economy. In
order to grow their influence and economic reasons, they have to expand the
territories under the guises of freeing their oppressed people. Through their
advanced and better military hardwares, they intimidate and bully small and
powerless neighbors. Nazi Germany did it before. Today, China and Russia are
equated to Nazi Germany.
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President Putin |
Both China and Russia are
authoritarian countries; that is, only a few manage and control the government,
and repress their citizens. Russia, a corrupt country fights its survival to
make its place safe for corruption. Since authoritarian rule represses their citizens,
many journalists who try to investigate the government’s shadowy activities and
transactions die a horrible and excruciating death, leaving neither traces nor
investigation. Both countries have a tightly controlled political system that
leaves little room for dissent. Confrontation seems futile; people are too
scared to form a united opposition. A few weeks
ago, China executed prominent business tycoon Liu Han, chairman of the Hanlong
Group, and Forbes ranked the 148th richest person in China in 2012.
He was charged of running a crime syndicate and involved in a campaign of
intimidation since 1990. In Russia, Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest
man, was put in prison in 2005 on charges of tax evasion and fraud. Some
European countries including the United States accused Russia of
"selective prosecution" and abuse of the legal system.
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China President Xi Jinping with Pres. Obama |
One common ambition of these two
countries is to expand the present territories, whether by force or by other stealthy
moves. Putin wants to restore the old USSR with Russia as the center of its
power and powerful army in the heart of its satellites including Ukraine. That
is the picture before the collapse of the federation in 1992. Today, slowly and
slowly, he is now attempting to reassert Russian leadership over the
post-Soviet states, and intervenes economically and militarily in its “near
abroad. Russia sent its tanks into Georgia in 2008, invaded and annexed Crimea
by stealth last year, and played proxy war in Eastern Ukraine. Its shadowy
incursion into Georgia and Ukraine speaks it all.
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South China Sea |
China, on the other hand, claimed almost the entire South China Sea - an
area defined by the "nine-dash line" which Beijing says its right to
the area comes from 2,000 years of history where the Paracel and Spratly island
chains were regarded as integral parts of the Chinese nation. Both the Philippines and China lay claim to
the Scarborough Shoal which is located 100 miles (160km) from the Philippines
and 500 miles from China.
With powerful military at their
disposal, both countries tend to intimidate and bully their neighbors by
military posturing, invading the sovereignty, and annexing territory. China, on
the other hand, turned deaf ears from their neighbors’ complaints; built an
airstrip and conducted oil exploration in the contested South China Sea. Russia
warned US and NATO and EU to keep out from Ukraine for he has nuclear power
that could lead to nuclear Armageddon.
Putin, far more dangerous than
politicians, is on the diplomatic table for Ukraine on his proxy war; winning
major concession such as restoration of Ukrainian control over the border with
Russia in the separatist-controlled areas, and grant wide powers to the eastern
regions, including the right to form their own police force and trade freely
with Russia. China defies any diplomatic effort on his own; refuses to participate in a United Nations arbitration process. Economic sanctions hit Russia,
but it does not deter Putin; cases were filed by Asian countries for China, but
China ignores it.
As always shown in history,
appeasement or concession to an aggressor does not work as in the case of
Hitler; economic sanctions may bite, but does not always sway these leaders to
back down; military solution accelerates the fuel burning. Only diplomatic
effort may save from these conflicts to a nuclear explosion. These leaders when
cornered choose instead to escalate the crisis and risk an all-out
confrontation. China and Russia offer their new world order calculus, but, most
people say, can be equated to Nazi Germany.
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